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A challenge in studying viral immune escape is determining how mutations combine to escape polyclonal antibodies, which can potentially target multiple distinct viral epitopes. Here we introduce a biophysical model of this process that partitions the total polyclonal antibody activity by epitope and then quantifies how each viral mutation affects the antibody activity against each epitope. We develop software that can use deep mutational scanning data to infer these properties for polyclonal antibody mixtures. We validate this software using a computationally simulated deep mutational scanning experiment and demonstrate that it enables the prediction of escape by arbitrary combinations of mutations. The software described in this paper is available at https://jbloomlab.github.io/polyclonal.

Maximum likelihood estimation in phylogenetics requires a means of handling unknown ancestral states. Classical maximum likelihood averages over these unknown intermediate states, leading to provably consistent estimation of the topology and continuous model parameters. Recently, a computationally efficient approach has been proposed to jointly maximize over these unknown states and phylogenetic parameters. Although this method of joint maximum likelihood estimation can obtain estimates more quickly, its properties as an estimator are not yet clear. In this article, we show that this method of jointly estimating phylogenetic parameters along with ancestral states is not consistent in general. We find a sizeable region of parameter space that generates data on a four-taxon tree for which this joint method estimates the internal branch length to be exactly zero, even in the limit of infinite-length sequences. More generally, we show that this joint method only estimates branch lengths correctly on a set of measure zero. We show empirically that branch length estimates are systematically biased downward, even for short branches.

Probabilistic modeling is fundamental to the statistical analysis of complex data. In addition to forming a coherent description of the data‐generating process, probabilistic models enable parameter inference about given datasets. This procedure is well developed in the Bayesian perspective, in which one infers probability distributions describing to what extent various possible parameters agree with the data. In this paper, we motivate and review probabilistic modeling for adaptive immune receptor repertoire data then describe progress and prospects for future work, from germline haplotyping to adaptive immune system deployment across tissues. The relevant quantities in immune sequence analysis include not only continuous parameters such as gene use frequency but also discrete objects such as B‐cell clusters and lineages. Throughout this review, we unravel the many opportunities for probabilistic modeling in adaptive immune receptor analysis, including settings for which the Bayesian approach holds substantial promise (especially if one is optimistic about new computational methods). From our perspective, the greatest prospects for progress in probabilistic modeling for repertoires concern ancestral sequence estimation for B‐cell receptor lineages, including uncertainty from germline genotype, rearrangement, and lineage development.

Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo explores tree space slowly, in part because it frequently returns to the same tree topology. An alternative strategy would be to explore tree space systematically, and never return to the same topology. In this article, we present an efficient parallelized method to map out the high likelihood set of phylogenetic tree topologies via systematic search, which we show to be a good approximation of the high posterior set of tree topologies on the data sets analyzed. Here, “likelihood” of a topology refers to the tree likelihood for the corresponding tree with optimized branch lengths. We call this method “phylogenetic topographer” (PT). The PT strategy is very simple: starting in a number of local topology maxima (obtained by hill-climbing from random starting points), explore out using local topology rearrangements, only continuing through topologies that are better than some likelihood threshold below the best observed topology. We show that the normalized topology likelihoods are a useful proxy for the Bayesian posterior probability of those topologies. By using a nonblocking hash table keyed on unique representations of tree topologies, we avoid visiting topologies more than once across all concurrent threads exploring tree space. We demonstrate that PT can be used directly to approximate a Bayesian consensus tree topology. When combined with an accurate means of evaluating per-topology marginal likelihoods, PT gives an alternative procedure for obtaining Bayesian posterior distributions on phylogenetic tree topologies.

The marginal likelihood of a model is a key quantity for assessing the evidence provided by the data in support of a model. The marginal likelihood is the normalizing constant for the posterior density, obtained by integrating the product of the likelihood and the prior with respect to model parameters. Thus, the computational burden of computing the marginal likelihood scales with the dimension of the parameter space. In phylogenetics, where we work with tree topologies that are high-dimensional models, standard approaches to computing marginal likelihoods are very slow. Here, we study methods to quickly compute the marginal likelihood of a single fixed tree topology. We benchmark the speed and accuracy of 19 different methods to compute the marginal likelihood of phylogenetic topologies on a suite of real data sets under the JC69 model. These methods include several new ones that we develop explicitly to solve this problem, as well as existing algorithms that we apply to phylogenetic models for the first time. Altogether, our results show that the accuracy of these methods varies widely, and that accuracy does not necessarily correlate with computational burden. Our newly developed methods are orders of magnitude faster than standard approaches, and in some cases, their accuracy rivals the best established estimators.